Historically, the Golden Globes serve as a prediction for the Oscars. Based upon the Golden Globe nominations, I have particular predictions for the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Science’s nominees, especially in the category of Achievement in Directing. I predict that the AMPAS will nominate five out of the following for this particular honour.
Ben Affleck for Argo
Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty
Tom Hooper for Les Misérables
Ang Lee for Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg for Lincoln
Quentin Tarantino for Django Unchained
Tarantino and Hooper are the maybes, the remaining four I think are solid bets; I doubt anyone else will appear (except possibly Paul Thomas Anderson for The Master). I also anticipate that Daniel Day-Lewis and Hugh Jackman will be up for Best Actor, for Lincoln and Les Misérables respectively, and Philip Seymour Hoffman and Joaquin Phoenix in The Master will juggle Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor between them at the BAFTAs and Oscars. The latter category will probably also feature Alan Arkin for Argo, Leonardo DiCaprio for Django Unchained and Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln. I expect Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone) will remain prominent among Best Actress nominees, as well as Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) and Naomi Watts (The Impossible), and is any Best Actress contenders list complete without Meryl Streep (Hope Springs)? Anne Hathaway (Les Misérables), Amy Adams (The Master) and Sally Field (Lincoln) will most likely be up for Best Supporting Actress.
I expect Brave and Frankenweenie to be up for Animated Feature, and perhaps the other three Golden Globe nominees (Hotel Transylvania, Rise of the Guardians, Wreck-It Ralph) but perhaps not, as Paranorman stands a chance as well. Amour and A Royal Affair, as well as Rust and Bone, are likely to be nominated for Foreign Language Film.
My personal favourite of 2012, Skyfall, is not likely to get much awards attention, but I can see Roger Deakins being nominated for Cinematography. Deakins did tremendous work with the digital photography of Skyfall, and I would very much like to see him nominated (for the 10th time). Similarly, I can also imagine Wally Pfister, who won Best Cinematography for Inception in 2010, being nominated for The Dark Knight Rises. As Pfister is now directing a film in his own right, Transcendence, this could be his last nomination in this category, and I can see it happening.
The Best Picture category is the most open of all, as the number of nominees can be anything between five and ten. I think it unlikely that the ten films nominated at the Golden Globes will be up for Best Picture at the Oscars, because the AMPAS does not have the separate categories and is notoriously sniffy about comedies. Moonrise Kingdom and Silver Linings Playbook have a chance of being nominated, as do The Master and Beasts of the Southern Wild, but the very strong contenders are Argo, Django Unchained, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Zero Dark Thirty and Les Misérables. I anticipate these will all be up for Best Picture. Amour could well be in there as well, although I think an animated film among the Best Picture nominees is unlikely. As a (very) wildcard, the AFI did name The Dark Knight Rises as one of its films of the year…
Please check back once the Oscar nominees are announced on 10th January for consideration of likely winners!