Best Picture winners typically win other awards, and crucially at least one of Writing, Editing, Directing. I have previously identified where I think the Writing and Directing Oscars will fall, so what about Editing, historically the silver bullet when it comes to Best Picture. The nominees for Film Editing are all up for Best Picture, which helps to narrow down the likely winner of Best Picture.

For most of these, the editing is unobtrusive and fills the typical requirement of editing, to be invisible. Thelma Schoonmaker is an emperor in the field of editing, and it is testament to her skills that the three and half hour run time of Killers of the Flower Moon flies by. Similarly, the editing of Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers and Poor Things allow these films to flow smoothly. The exception, surprise surprise, is Oppenheimer, where Jennifer Lame’s editing works as an intrinsic expressive tool that disrupts while simultaneously continuing the narrative. For some, this might be a bit too ‘look at me’, but amongst editors, I can see this being admired. Therefore, my prediction for Editing is Oppenheimer.

While we are at it, I believe that Oppenheimer will pick up Score and Cinematography as well. This is partly because Ludwig Göransson and Hoyte Van Hoytema already picked up BAFTAs. But also, when I think of memorable music and images from last year, Göransson’s haunting tones come to mind as well as the blistering visuals from Van Hoytema, incorporating colour and monochrome, the richness of the desert as well as the muted tones of the laboratory and homes. This is not to disparage the work of the other composers or cinematographers, but I do not recall the scores of Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, American Fiction, Killers of the Flower Moon or Poor Things as vividly as that of Oppenheimer. Meanwhile, the visuals of Killers of the Flower Moon and Maestro made less of an impression. Poor Things does have memorable cinematography by virtue of being so odd, but I think the array of visuals in Oppenheimer will win over that section of the Academy.

And so we come to Best Picture. When picking a Best Picture winner, it can help to look at what else the nominees are likely to win:

American Fiction – Adapted Screenplay

Anatomy of a Fall

Barbie – Original Song

The Holdovers – Original Screenplay

Killers of the Flower Moon – Lead Actress

Maestro

Oppenheimer – Directing, Lead Actor, Supporting Actor, Editing, Cinematography, Score

Past Lives

Poor Things – Production Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Costume Design

The Zone of Interest – International Feature

Looking at these, I can see three of the nominees leaving with nothing. For my money, Anatomy of a Fall and Past Lives were among the best films of last year. I also enjoyed Maestro. I see Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, American Fiction and The Holdovers all picking up one, and Poor Things attracting three. But when it comes to Best Picture and a total of seven Oscars, I predict that Oppenheimer will be (sorry) Da Bomb.

It is perhaps unfortunate that everyone doesn’t win something, but that’s democracy for you – someone always loses. At least in this case, anyone who has seen any (let alone all) of the nominated films has won something. Either they won a movie that they enjoyed, or they had an experience that they can moan about. In all likelihood, the Oscars will provide much the same.