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88th Annual Academy Award Predictions
It’s been a road of some indeterminate length, and I’ve given my views on some of the categories. But at long(ish) last, here are my picks for the 88th Annual Academy Awards. As before, these are both what I believe will win, and what I would vote for were I a member of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (which is not the same as “should win” – I’m not that arrogant).
Disclaimer: I may change some of these after I see Brooklyn. Also, I am changing my Supporting Actress prediction, so don’t bother pointing it out.
Brooklyn
Room
Predicted winner – The Revenant
My preference – Room
Director
Lenny Abrahamson – Room
Alejandro G. Iñárritu – The Revenant
Tom McCarthy – Spotlight
Adam McKay – The Big Short
George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road
Predicted winner – Alejandro G. Iñárritu – The Revenant
My preference – Lenny Abrahamson – Room
Actor
Bryan Cranston – Trumbo
Matt Damon – The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant
Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne – The Danish Girl
Predicted winner – Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant
My preference – Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs
Actress
Brie Larson – Room
Jennifer Lawrence – Joy
Charlotte Rampling – 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn
Predicted winner – Brie Larson – Room
My preference – Brie Larson – Room
Supporting Actor
Christian Bale – The Big Short
Tom Hardy – The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo – Spotlight
Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone – Creed
Predicted winner – Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies
My preference – Mark Ruffalo – Spotlight
Supporting Actress
Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara – Carol
Rachel McAdams – Spotlight
Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs
Predicted winner – Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl
My preference – Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs
Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short
Brooklyn
Carol
The Martian
Room
Predicted winner – The Big Short
My preference – Room
Original Screenplay
Bridge of Spies
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton
Predicted winner – Spotlight
My preference – Spotlight
Cinematography
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Predicted winner – The Revenant
My preference – Sicario
Costume Design
Carol
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Predicted winner – Mad Max: Fury Road
My preference – Cinderella
Editing
The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Spotlight
Predicted winner – Mad Max: Fury Road
My preference – Spotlight
Make-Up and Hair
Mad Max: Fury Road
The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared
The Revenant
Predicted winner – The Revenant
My preference – The Revenant
Score
Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Predicted winner – The Hateful Eight
My preference – Carol
Original Song
Earned It, The Weeknd – Fifty Shades of Grey
Manta Ray, J Ralph & Antony – Racing Extinction
Simple Song #3, Sumi Jo – Youth
Til It Happens To You, Lady Gaga – The Hunting Ground
Writing’s On the Wall, Sam Smith – Spectre
Predicted winner – Til It Happens To You, Lady Gaga – The Hunting Ground
My preference – Writing’s On the Wall, Sam Smith – Spectre
Production Design
Bridge of Spies
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Predicted winner – The Revenant
My preference – The Revenant
Sound Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Predicted winner – Mad Max: Fury Road
My preference – Sicario
Sound Mixing
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Predicted winner – The Revenant
My preference – Mad Max: Fury Road
Visual Effects
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Predicted winner – Star Wars: The Force Awakens
My preference – Ex Machina
Animated Film
Anomalisa
Boy and the World
Shaun the Sheep Movie
When Marnie Was There
Predicted winner – Inside Out
My preference – Inside Out
Foreign Language Film
Embrace of the Serpent – Colombia
Mustang – France
Son of Saul – Hungary
Theeb – Jordan
A War – Denmark
Predicted winner – Theeb (complete guess and as I have not seen any, I have no preference.)
Documentary Feature
Amy
Cartel Land
The Look of Silence
What Happened, Miss Simone?
Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom
Predicted winner – The Look of Silence (complete guess and as I have not seen any, I have no preference.)
Animated and Live Action Shorts – I have no knowledge of these so no predictions or preferences.
Oscar Views – Part Five
Nearly twenty years ago, Kate Winslet and Leonardo DiCaprio sailed into our hearts (of love or hate, depending on your perspective) in Titanic, and now both are headed for Oscar glory. After picking up the Golden Globe and BAFTA for Best Supporting Actress, Winslet looks set to win her second Oscar for Steve Jobs, adding a Best Supporting Actress statuette to go alongside her Best Actress award for The Reader from 2008. Meanwhile, DiCaprio’s performance in The Revenant has already earned him a Golden Globe, a Critics’ Choice Award, a Screen Actors’ Guild award and a BAFTA for Best Actor, and for him to win those and not the Oscar would be astonishing, considering the overlap of voters. The cliché says that no one knows anything in Hollywood, but it isn’t hard to know things about Hollywood. I love both performances and have a fondness for the actors because of their ascension to stardom when I first getting into movies back in the late 90s. Were I a member of the Academy, though, would I vote for them?
In the case of Winslet, yes, because her performance as Joanna Hoffman in Steve Jobs is a key part of the emotionality of that film. While Michael Fassbender as Steve himself is the dazzling intellect of the film, Joanna is the heart, and her connection to Steve is what allows the viewer to connect with him. Winslet delivers the perfect combination of affection and exasperation, ensuring that the viewer maintains an understanding of Steve as equal parts compelling and infuriating. Of the other two nominees for Supporting Actress I have seen, Rooney Mara has a wonderfully subtle yet sad sweetness about her in Carol, making her arc soulful and heartbreaking. Rachel McAdams in Spotlight is a solid and sympathetic presence, but I feel she has more to offer and, frankly, everyone in Spotlight delivers the goods. I have not seen The Hateful Eight or The Danish Girl, but due to her SAG award, Alicia Vikander is the only likely rival to Winslet. Both are playing historical figures and both have to speak in accents different to their own (which the Academy members love). Vikander, of course, is not even speaking her naive tongue, which perhaps makes her performance more impressive. That said, Winslet’s accent at least is more showy and, according to interviews, unique, and that is likely to give her the edge.
Speaking of Steve Jobs, were I a member of AMPAS, Michael Fassbender would be my pick for Best Actor. Much as I was impressed by DiCaprio and certainly believed in his portrayal of Hugo Glass, he was easy to sympathise with because of his situations. Steve Jobs is a much harder sell because the character is pretty unlikeable – arrogant, self-aggrandizing, contemptuous of others and driven by an unwavering belief in his own superiority. Yet he was utterly captivating and never less than compelling. Much of this can be put down to Aaron Sorkin’s razor sharp script and Danny Boyle’s rehearsal schedule and assembly of the film, but Fassbender delivers a tour-de-force performance that impresses me more than DiCaprio’s survivalism or Matt Damon’s good humour/stubbornness in The Martian. I cannot comment on Bryan Cranston (Trumbo) or Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl), but of the Best Actor nominees I have seen, Fassbender would be my pick. But expect DiCaprio to add to his collection this Sunday.
Oscar Views – Part Four
Confession time: I have only managed to see one of the films nominated in the category Best Actress. That film is Carol, which I liked very much, and in which Cate Blanchett was her usual wonderful self. It is debatable whether she and Rooney Mara are both in lead roles, or indeed if Mara’s role is more central than Blanchett’s, but Blanchett is the one up for Best Actress. I would be perfectly happy for her to win, but she won’t. Since winning the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama, Brie Larson in Room has stood out from the pack. Larson subsequently picked up the Screen Actors’ Guild award and the BAFTA for Best Actress. Given the overlap of members between these institutions, I confidently predict that Larson will win the Oscar for Best Actress in a Leading Role. Of the other nominees, Blanchett won two years ago for Blue Jasmine but if she were going to win this year there would have been indications. Jennifer Lawrence may be an Oscar darling and I was genuinely surprised when she won for Silver Linings Playbook, but this does not appear to be her year. Charlotte Rampling in 45 Years is a left field choice, and Saiorse Ronan’s time will come, just not this year for Brooklyn.
What is striking, however, is that Best Actress is the only award I expect Room to pick up, despite its nominations for Picture, Directing and Adapted Screenplay. This is an annoying trend in Best Actress winning films – the only thing honoured about the film is its leading lady. Recent winners including Lawrence and Blanchett as well as Julianne Moore and Sandra Bullock were either in films that had no nominations beside Best Actress, or were in films that had multiple nominations but won nothing else. Indeed, the last time a film won Best Picture AND Best Actress was 2004, when Million Dollar Baby was the big winner and Hilary Swank took home her second Oscar. Interestingly, her first win in 1999 was for Boys Don’t Cry, a film that won no other Academy Awards and had no other major nominations. This is a depressing reminder of the paucity of films with major roles for women. Granted, Room is up for other awards, and much had been made of Mad Max: Fury Road’s feminist credentials, and Brooklyn is also a female-centred story. But the other nominees are all focused on male characters and traditionally male endeavours – finance, law/espionage, (space) exploration, survival, journalism. Meanwhile, the “women’s” films consist of a story of motherhood and a period romance, while Mad Max is an equal opportunities survival story. A Best Actress nomination for Charlize Theron would have been nice, but no such luck. The Best Actress nominees are largely in traditional female roles – mother (twice!), lover, wife, girl-becoming-woman. Lawrence as the entrepreneur in Joy is the more unconventional role, and applause to her for building a career in these distinctive roles. Congratulations to Brie Larson, but I wish the competition was more varied.
Carol
Carol is a delicately beautiful and heartbreakingly mournful period romance. Director Todd Haynes and screenwriter Phyllis Nagis adapt Patricia Highsmith’s novel The Price of Salt into an entrancing portrayal of hidden love, frustrated desire and broken people glancing off each other. As would-be lovers Carol Aird and Therese Belivet, Cate Blanchett and Rooney Mara are never less than utterly engaging. Blanchett has a sublime ability to merge strength with fragility, which makes Carol something of an ideal role for her. Mara conveys both wide-eyed innocence and growing experience as the relationship progresses. Judy Becker’s exquisite production design not only creates the necessary period detail but also serves to create a mise-en-scene of entrapment, both protagonists enclosed by societal as well as familial demands. DOP Edward Lachman lenses much of the film in soft focus, adding to the melancholy longing of the characters. It would be so easy for a film of forbidden love to overextend into crude melodrama, but Haynes utilises restraint and subtlety to express the anguish of his characters, with looks, gestures and careful framing suggesting as much as they explicate. Carter Burwell’s score is similarly suggestive, drawing the viewer along and sweeping them up when necessary. Overall, Carol is that finest of cinematic finds – a gem where all elements operate in near perfect harmony.
Vincent's Views 