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The Oscars are said and done for another year, and overall I am very pleased with the results. I can agree with the winners, I applaud many of the speeches and the show was a delight to watch.
Most importantly, how did I do? I made predictions in 19 of the 24 categories, and as the show started I did very well, racking up correct prediction after correct prediction. This was pleasing if a little predictable, but as things continued surprises started to appear, such as Get Out winning Original Screenplay and Dunkirk picking up Editing. Overall, I correctly predicted the winners in 15 out of my 19 picks, which at 78% is pretty good going. I’m no gambler, but every year I am tempted.
|Picture||Correctly Predicted?||Directing||Correctly Predicted?|
|The Shape of Water||No||Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water||Yes|
|Call Me by Your Name||Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk|
|Darkest Hour||Jordan Peele, Get Out|
|Dunkirk||Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird|
|Get Out||Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread|
|Phantom Thread||Makeup and Hairstyling|
|The Post||Darkest Hour||Yes|
|Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri||Victoria & Abdul|
|Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour||Yes||Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri||Yes|
|Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name||Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water|
|Daniel Day,Lewis, Phantom Thread||Margot Robbie, I, Tonya|
|Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out||Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird|
|Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.||Meryl Streep, The Post|
|Supporting Actor||Supporting Actress|
|Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri||Yes||Allison Janney, I, Tonya||Yes|
|Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project||Mary J. Blige, Mudbound|
|Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri||Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread|
|Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water||Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird|
|Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World||Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water|
|Adapted Screenplay||Original Screenplay|
|Call Me by Your Name||Yes||Get Out||No|
|The Disaster Artist||The Big Sick|
|Molly’s Game||The Shape of Water|
|Mudbound||Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri|
|Original Score||Original Song|
|The Shape of Water||Yes||‘Remember Me’ from Coco||No|
|Dunkirk||“Mighty River” from Mudbound|
|Phantom Thread||“Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name|
|Star Wars: The Last Jedi||“Stand Up for Something” from Marshall|
|Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri||“This Is Me” from The Greatest Showman|
|Sound Editing||Sound Mixing|
|Baby Driver||Baby Driver|
|Blade Runner 2049||Blade Runner 2049|
|The Shape of Water||The Shape of Water|
|Star Wars: The Last Jedi||Star Wars: The Last Jedi|
|Production Design||Visual Effects|
|The Shape of Water||Yes||Blade Runner 2049||Yes|
|Beauty and the Beast||Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2|
|Blade Runner 2049||Kong: Skull Island|
|Darkest Hour||Star Wars: The Last Jedi|
|Dunkirk||War for the Planet of the Apes|
|Phantom Thread||Yes||Blade Runner 2049||Yes|
|Beauty and the Beast||Darkest Hour|
|The Shape of Water||Mudbound|
|Victoria & Abdul||The Shape of Water|
|Film Editing||Animated Feature|
|Baby Driver||The Boss Baby|
|I, Tonya||The Breadwinner|
|The Shape of Water||Ferdinand|
|Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri||Loving Vincent|
The biggest delights for me personally were one predicted winner and one unexpected though desired victory. When Roger Deakins was announced as the winner of Best Cinematography, I applauded from my sofa. After 14 nominations and such fantastic work in The Shawshank Redemption, The Man Who Wasn’t There, No Country For Old Men, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, Skyfall, Sicario and many more, it was an absolute delight to see Deakins finally honoured for the extraordinary visuals of Blade Runner 2049. Well shot sir, well shot.
I wanted The Shape of Water to win Best Picture but expected that award to go to Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Over the course of the show, deviations from my expectations made that less likely, beginning with Get Out winning Original Screenplay. In recent years, Best Picture has also won Screenplay, Editing or Directing (making The Departed a quintessential winner for 2006). Since Martin McDonagh was not nominated for Directing, a likely win for him and the film was Original Screenplay. Without that, and with Editing going to Dunkirk, Picture became more open. And once Guillermo Del Toro won Directing, The Shape of Water seemed ever more likely. But in my scepticism, I did not see the members of AMPAS voting for a fantasy film. When Faye Dunaway and Warren Beatty announced the winner, I applauded again. For a fantasy/monster/sci fi movie to win Best Picture shows that the Academy members are not as conservative as they used to be, embracing more radical and surprising choices.
The show as a whole was very well done. Jimmy Kimmell hosted with great humour, wryness and affection. I especially like Kimmell’s gag of bringing in audiences, a move he and his team pioneered last year by arranging a tour group to come into the Kodak Theater, and built on this year by taking several movie stars into a nearby screening of A Wrinkle in Time. Had I been in that cinema, my mind would have been blown by epic proportions with the sudden arrival of Guillermo Del Toro, Gal Gadot, Armie Hammer, Margot Robbie, Ansel Elgort, Mark Hamill and the rest. Plus a hotdog cannon!Perhaps the strongest legacy of this year’s Oscars, however, will be the politics. After a few years of controversy over all white acting nominees, the recent scandals over harassment and the subsequent #MeToo and #TimesUp campaigns prompted debate and resistance. Kimmel named and shamed Harvey Weinstein as only the second person to be expelled from AMPAS; actresses received greater prominence as various winners of the Oscar for Best Actress in a Leading Role presented major awards. Last year’s Best Actress Emma Stone presented Directing to Guillermo Del Toro, and two pairs of Oscar winners presented this year’s Best Actor and Best Actress awards: Jane Fonda and Helen Mirren to Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour and Jodie Foster and Jennifer Lawrence to Frances McDormand for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, respectively. McDormand made perhaps the most impassioned speech of the night when she encouraged all the female nominees to stand up, be counted and be counted.
Some might complain about this political element, either arguing that the Oscars are about art which is not political, or that the Oscars are entertainment and too frivolous or commercial to engage in politics. I reject both these positions because art is and always has been political, and with its extraordinary reach it would be a terrible waste if cinema were not political. The Academy recognised this through a retrospective on war cinema, dedicated to the men and women of the armed forces and introduced touchingly by actor and Vietnam veteran Wes Studi. Secondly, entertainment expresses social and political concerns purely by its production within particular contexts – the dominance of men in the film industry and cinematic output is a political reality and one that is long overdue a challenge. As recent films have demonstrated, you can have hugely successful films with female directors and leads, and the studios apparently taking such risks demonstrates that the only risk is to conservative ideology. For certain, time is up, and my heartiest applause to every presenter and winner at the 90th Annual Academy Awards who used that grandest stage and widest audience to highlight the state of their industry and to call for change.
Score is very strong this year. Any of these nominated scores make for great listening on their own, while also gloriously enhancing the visuals that they accompany. It’s especially pleasing to see Jonny Greenwood here, after he was omitted from the nominees on a technicality ten years ago for There Will Be Blood. For my money, I was most impressed with Hans Zimmer’s relentless countdown score for Dunkirk, which was a more imaginative musical arrangement than Zimmer has delivered in recent years. However, following success at the Golden Globes and BAFTA, I suspect that Alexandre Desplat will add to his collection come Oscar night.
Phantom Thread, Jonny Greenwood
I’m not familiar with the nominated songs, so as a complete stab in the dark and due to its extraordinary success, I pick “This Is Me” from The Greatest Showman.
“Mighty River” from Mudbound, Mary J. Blige
“Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name, Sufjan Stevens
“Remember Me” from Coco, Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Robert Lopez
“Stand Up for Something” from Marshall, Diane Warren, Common
“This Is Me” from The Greatest Showman, Benj Pasek, Justin Paul (predicted winner)
Nominated twice? Honestly, Academy, couldn’t you spread it out a bit? Then again, the production design of Beauty and the Beast and Darkest Hour are pretty impressive, so fair enough for Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer. That said, I suspect AMPAS will reward the remarkable designs of D. Austerberry, Jeffrey A. Melvin and Shane Vieau for The Shape of Water, which combines the historical with the fantastic, the whimsical with the serious. Personally, I preferred the retro-futurism of Blade Runner 2049, but I’d be surprised if this award does not go to The Shape of Water.
Typically, this award is a bone thrown to the mainstream blockbusters. It’s not a constant, as sometimes such films attract other awards as well, and the line between commercial and award film is sometimes blurred. Of these nominees, however, it is notable that three of them appear nowhere else in the awards categories. From a visual effects perspective, they are all very impressive, from the far reaches of space and intriguing alien worlds in Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 and Star Wars: The Last Jedi to the (very different) dystopias of Blade Runner 2049 and War for the Planet of the Apes to the monster mashes of Kong: Skull Island. I loved all these films, not least for their astonishing visuals, and it’s a hard category to pick. I suspect that on the day, the award will go to Blade Runner 2049, but for me, I’d like to see the remarkable performance capture work of War for the Planet of the Apes.
Blade Runner 2049, John Nelson, Paul Lambert, Richard R. Hoover, Gerd Nefzer (predicted winner)
Kong: Skull Island, Stephen Rosenbaum, Jeff White, Scott Benza, Mike Meinardus
Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Ben Morris, Mike Mulholland, Chris Corbould, Neal Scanlan
From the delicate subtlety of The Shape of Water to the REALLY LOUD EXPLOSIONS of Star Wars: The Last Jedi, sound has been perhaps more noticeable than usual this year. This is not necessarily a good thing, since one can be drawn out of the film if the construction of the sound is obvious. Happily, in all of the nominees the sound is superbly mixed (no pun intended) so as to enhance the immersive qualities of the world presented. Nowhere is this more apparent than in Dunkirk, where the crashing of waves, the roar of explosions and the growl of boat and aircraft engines are sublimely blended with Hans Zimmer’s relentless score and the exquisite images. I think Dunkirk will win Sound Editing and Sound Mixing, and I’ll be happy if it does.
Baby Driver, Julian Slater
Blade Runner 2049, Mark Mangini, Theo Green
Dunkirk, Alex Gibson, Richard King (preferred and predicted winner)
The Shape of Water, Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira
Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Ren Klyce, Matthew Wood
Roger Deakins, Roger Deakins, Roger Deakins, Roger Deakins. I actually think it will happen this year. Previously, despite his astonishing work, Deakins has been up against exceptional competition, especially with 3D cinematography. This year, however, the nominees in this category are working within similar parameters. Hoyte van Hoytema’s work for Dunkirk is remarkable, not least his aerial work with IMAX cameras attached to Spitfires. But every frame of Blade Runner 2049 is a breathtaking work of art that you could frame on your wall, and this is Deakins’ time. Not only do I want him to win, I predict that he will.
Mudbound, Rachel Morrison
Editing is sometimes tied to Best Picture – note that three of the nominees this year are also up for the Academy’s highest award. However, in this case I suspect that the film cut so closely to music it might as well be a musical will pick up the Oscar. I wasn’t a huge fan of Baby Driver, but I anticipate it will be a winner. That said, personally I’d pick Dunkirk, for its smart editing between different timeframes that never confused or befuddled me.
I, Tonya, Tatiana S. Riegel
DISCLAIMER: I have not seen any of the nominees in the categories of Foreign Language Film, Documentary Feature, Documentary Short Subject, Animated Short, Live Action Short Film, so I have no view on them.
When it comes to the Oscars, one can pick what is likely to win, and what one would like to win (or, according to the more arrogant out there, what should win). On the first point, the easy answer is what has won so far. If a film has won awards at the Golden Globes and the BAFTAs, not to mention various critical awards and those of the various filmmaking guilds of America, it is likely to pick up Best Picture at the Oscars. This is not a hard and fast rule, but it is a tendency.
As previously mentioned, I predict that Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri will pick up Best Picture. What I would vote for, were I a member of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, is a different matter. Of the nine nominees, I was most impressed by Dunkirk, but World War II films are such clichéd Best Picture winners that I would not vote for it. In a year when focus is on gender relations in the film industry, I want to support a film that has something positive to say about women, and is also something outside the generic norm. Lady Bird and The Shape of Water fulfil those criteria, and the latter is also a fantasy film, extremely rare in these circles. Therefore, in my fantasy AMPAS vote, I would pick The Shape of Water.
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (predicted winner)
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri is a surprising lead contender for Best Picture because Martin McDonagh is not nominated for Achievement in Directing. If he were, I would predict a victory, but as he is not, I have the same dilemma. Much as I love Christopher Nolan, he has opted for a safe award genre with his World War II thriller. As impressively directed as Dunkirk is, I want to see him garner awards for science fiction films like Inception and Interstellar. Therefore, I champion another of my favourite directors, Guillermo Del Toro. Handily, I suspect he will actually walk away with the award anyway, which will make me happy.
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water (predicted and preferred winner)
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out
I have not seen any of these, but I would be flabbergasted if Coco did not bring Pixar another award.
The Boss Baby, Tom McGrath, Ramsey Ann Naito
The Breadwinner, Nora Twomey, Anthony Leo
Coco, Lee Unkrich, Darla K. Anderson (predicted winner)
Ferdinand, Carlos Saldanha
Loving Vincent, Dorota Kobiela, Hugh Welchman, Sean Bobbitt, Ivan Mactaggart, Hugh Welchman
In case you’ve been living in a cave, it’s awards season, a time when films are rewarded for being excellent or at least because they tick some subjective boxes about what counts as ‘quality’. Some film fans proclaim their absolute certainty of what should be rewarded, but I prefer to discuss the nominees without the assumption of superiority, although I certainly have my own views. I’ve written previously about radical and conservative choices of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. This year’s Best Picture nominees are a varied bunch, including typical and not so typical Oscar bait. Two topics that AMPAS loves are World War II and twentieth century American history (which obviously overlap). Darkest Hour and Dunkirk are both concerned with World War II, making them interesting companion pieces if rather obvious award choices. The same is true of The Post, which recounts a battle over freedom of the press. In previous years, the Best Picture gong would most likely go to one of these three, but times are a-changing.
Recent Oscar years have been less predictable and more radical, with mainstream genre fare and provocative subject matter getting a look in. The most radical entries in this year’s race are Get Out, a horror film about American racial politics, and The Shape of Water, a fantasy film mixed with Cold War tensions. Mixed in with these are two coming of age tales, Call Me By Your Name and Lady Bird. Each of these has a distinct selling point: Lady Bird is about American girlhood, a rare enough topic in cinema let alone Oscar hopefuls; Call Me By Your Name is a love story between two men, suggesting that Moonlight’s surprise win last year may have been trailblazing.
Personally, I am torn over what I would like to win. Dunkirk was my favourite film last year, but it is such a safe choice I want something more radical to be named Best Picture. In the current climate of the Me Too and Time’s Up campaigns, fine films honouring women warrant attention. Lady Bird would be a remarkable winner, but it seems like a fairly safe film that offers no particular challenge. Pleasing though it is to see a film about racial tensions, and indeed a horror film, up for Best Picture, Get Out failed to wow me. The Shape of Water is an exquisite piece of work that tells a story of alienation largely filtered through the figure of a woman, whose sexuality and independence are foregrounded without overemphasis. For these reasons, as well as its supernatural elements, I would like The Shape of Water to pick up Best Picture.
However, there are two more nominees. Phantom Thread’s presence is hard to understand politically – the film is historical which the Academy often likes, but its focus is on a rather abrasive relationship. Perhaps, shock horror, its nomination is because a majority of the Academy membership simply think Phantom Thread is a very well made film. This view could carry it to Best Picture, but I doubt it because, after its success at the Golden Globes and BAFTAs, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri appears to be the lead contender to walk away with Best Picture.
Three Billboards is a somewhat typical contender, as it is a story about ‘America’. However, it is a far from rose-tinted portrait of modern America, as grief, resentment, racism, domestic abuse and terminal illness all jockey for position of primary misery. But, as is so often the case with award magnets, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri is a film of its time. Some pundits argue that a key element to the election of Donald Trump was his regular reference to the ‘forgotten’ people of America. Whether Mr Trump’s concerns are genuine or not, his rhetoric in favour of these supposed ‘forgotten’ people was certainly prominent, and such people are the focus of Three Billboards. With its focus upon blue collar people, largely neglected by advances in technology and infrastructure, living in communities fractured by class and racial tensions, Three Billboards is very much a film about America at its current moment (despite being a largely British production). Furthermore, the film resonates with current debates over gender relations in the film industry and beyond, with Frances McDormand’s Mildred an inspiring and unconventional protagonist. For its insightful and unflinching, yet heartfelt and never mean-spirited capturing of the zeitgeist, it is my prediction that the Oscar for Best Picture will go to Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.