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88th Annual Academy Award Predictions
It’s been a road of some indeterminate length, and I’ve given my views on some of the categories. But at long(ish) last, here are my picks for the 88th Annual Academy Awards. As before, these are both what I believe will win, and what I would vote for were I a member of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (which is not the same as “should win” – I’m not that arrogant).
Disclaimer: I may change some of these after I see Brooklyn. Also, I am changing my Supporting Actress prediction, so don’t bother pointing it out.
Brooklyn
Room
Predicted winner – The Revenant
My preference – Room
Director
Lenny Abrahamson – Room
Alejandro G. Iñárritu – The Revenant
Tom McCarthy – Spotlight
Adam McKay – The Big Short
George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road
Predicted winner – Alejandro G. Iñárritu – The Revenant
My preference – Lenny Abrahamson – Room
Actor
Bryan Cranston – Trumbo
Matt Damon – The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant
Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne – The Danish Girl
Predicted winner – Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant
My preference – Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs
Actress
Brie Larson – Room
Jennifer Lawrence – Joy
Charlotte Rampling – 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn
Predicted winner – Brie Larson – Room
My preference – Brie Larson – Room
Supporting Actor
Christian Bale – The Big Short
Tom Hardy – The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo – Spotlight
Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone – Creed
Predicted winner – Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies
My preference – Mark Ruffalo – Spotlight
Supporting Actress
Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara – Carol
Rachel McAdams – Spotlight
Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs
Predicted winner – Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl
My preference – Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs
Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short
Brooklyn
Carol
The Martian
Room
Predicted winner – The Big Short
My preference – Room
Original Screenplay
Bridge of Spies
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton
Predicted winner – Spotlight
My preference – Spotlight
Cinematography
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Predicted winner – The Revenant
My preference – Sicario
Costume Design
Carol
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Predicted winner – Mad Max: Fury Road
My preference – Cinderella
Editing
The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Spotlight
Predicted winner – Mad Max: Fury Road
My preference – Spotlight
Make-Up and Hair
Mad Max: Fury Road
The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared
The Revenant
Predicted winner – The Revenant
My preference – The Revenant
Score
Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Predicted winner – The Hateful Eight
My preference – Carol
Original Song
Earned It, The Weeknd – Fifty Shades of Grey
Manta Ray, J Ralph & Antony – Racing Extinction
Simple Song #3, Sumi Jo – Youth
Til It Happens To You, Lady Gaga – The Hunting Ground
Writing’s On the Wall, Sam Smith – Spectre
Predicted winner – Til It Happens To You, Lady Gaga – The Hunting Ground
My preference – Writing’s On the Wall, Sam Smith – Spectre
Production Design
Bridge of Spies
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Predicted winner – The Revenant
My preference – The Revenant
Sound Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Predicted winner – Mad Max: Fury Road
My preference – Sicario
Sound Mixing
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Predicted winner – The Revenant
My preference – Mad Max: Fury Road
Visual Effects
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Predicted winner – Star Wars: The Force Awakens
My preference – Ex Machina
Animated Film
Anomalisa
Boy and the World
Shaun the Sheep Movie
When Marnie Was There
Predicted winner – Inside Out
My preference – Inside Out
Foreign Language Film
Embrace of the Serpent – Colombia
Mustang – France
Son of Saul – Hungary
Theeb – Jordan
A War – Denmark
Predicted winner – Theeb (complete guess and as I have not seen any, I have no preference.)
Documentary Feature
Amy
Cartel Land
The Look of Silence
What Happened, Miss Simone?
Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom
Predicted winner – The Look of Silence (complete guess and as I have not seen any, I have no preference.)
Animated and Live Action Shorts – I have no knowledge of these so no predictions or preferences.
Oscar Views – Part Four
Confession time: I have only managed to see one of the films nominated in the category Best Actress. That film is Carol, which I liked very much, and in which Cate Blanchett was her usual wonderful self. It is debatable whether she and Rooney Mara are both in lead roles, or indeed if Mara’s role is more central than Blanchett’s, but Blanchett is the one up for Best Actress. I would be perfectly happy for her to win, but she won’t. Since winning the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama, Brie Larson in Room has stood out from the pack. Larson subsequently picked up the Screen Actors’ Guild award and the BAFTA for Best Actress. Given the overlap of members between these institutions, I confidently predict that Larson will win the Oscar for Best Actress in a Leading Role. Of the other nominees, Blanchett won two years ago for Blue Jasmine but if she were going to win this year there would have been indications. Jennifer Lawrence may be an Oscar darling and I was genuinely surprised when she won for Silver Linings Playbook, but this does not appear to be her year. Charlotte Rampling in 45 Years is a left field choice, and Saiorse Ronan’s time will come, just not this year for Brooklyn.
What is striking, however, is that Best Actress is the only award I expect Room to pick up, despite its nominations for Picture, Directing and Adapted Screenplay. This is an annoying trend in Best Actress winning films – the only thing honoured about the film is its leading lady. Recent winners including Lawrence and Blanchett as well as Julianne Moore and Sandra Bullock were either in films that had no nominations beside Best Actress, or were in films that had multiple nominations but won nothing else. Indeed, the last time a film won Best Picture AND Best Actress was 2004, when Million Dollar Baby was the big winner and Hilary Swank took home her second Oscar. Interestingly, her first win in 1999 was for Boys Don’t Cry, a film that won no other Academy Awards and had no other major nominations. This is a depressing reminder of the paucity of films with major roles for women. Granted, Room is up for other awards, and much had been made of Mad Max: Fury Road’s feminist credentials, and Brooklyn is also a female-centred story. But the other nominees are all focused on male characters and traditionally male endeavours – finance, law/espionage, (space) exploration, survival, journalism. Meanwhile, the “women’s” films consist of a story of motherhood and a period romance, while Mad Max is an equal opportunities survival story. A Best Actress nomination for Charlize Theron would have been nice, but no such luck. The Best Actress nominees are largely in traditional female roles – mother (twice!), lover, wife, girl-becoming-woman. Lawrence as the entrepreneur in Joy is the more unconventional role, and applause to her for building a career in these distinctive roles. Congratulations to Brie Larson, but I wish the competition was more varied.
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2
It begins quietly and with difficulty speaking, a problem that persists as the narrative progresses. Throughout The Hunger Games series, protagonist Katniss Everdeen (Jennifer Lawrence) has struggled to be heard or acknowledged as more than a pawn or puppet. This continued interest in the voiceless and powerless has been a consistent element of the series’ grim dystopia. Mockingjay Part 2 continues this conceit as Katniss repeatedly tries to assert her own identity and agency, yet is continually co-opted and coerced by President Alma Coin (Julianne Moore) and Plutarch Heavensbee (Philip Seymour Hoffman, in his final role). Katniss’ struggle allows the viewer to appreciate revolution and combat from a ground level, as director Francis Lawrence stages many gripping and even shocking set pieces, yet never loses sight of the individual journey. Attention is given to other characters such as Peeta Malark (Josh Hutcherson), Gale Hawthorne (Liam Hemsworth) and Finnick Odair (Sam Claflin) to allow other views and responses, while Panem in the grip of war is presented consistently and convincingly by production designer Philip Messina and DOP Jo Willems. Where many an action franchise presents violence as redemptive or at least cathartic, Mockingjay Part 2 suggests that violence may not be an answer. The coda feels like a partial cop out and is not entirely convincing, as the viewer may be left with a sense of disquiet and non-completion. But that may well be the point – whether the Games end or not, freedom and agency remain circumscribed. In daring to present this lack of resolution, The Hunger Games stands out from many of its contemporaries not only in its female-centred narrative, but also its willingness to suggest that courage, determination and compassion may not ultimately lead to a happy ending.
Still Alice
It is somewhat surprising that the only awards Still Alice has attracted are for Best Actress. Julianne Moore won the Golden Globe, the BAFTA, the Screen Actors Guild and her long-overdue Oscar for her performance as Dr Alice Howland, a linguistics professor who develops Early-onset Alzheimer’s Disease. Moore’s awards are well-deserved, but it is a disservice to the film to only credit her, as Still Alice is a deeply moving portrayal of a life ravaged by disease. Nominations for Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing and even Directing or Picture would not have been amiss. Indeed, in many ways it is more impressive than a more-lauded film (at least in terms of nominations) of the recent awards season, The Theory of Everything.
Cynically, one could argue that The Theory of Everything attracted greater attention because it focuses on a man dealing with a debilitating condition rather than a woman. Equally cynically although less accusingly, perhaps The Theory of Everything got more attention because its subject is a real person, whereas Still Alice is a fictional story adapted from the novel by Lisa Genova. Regardless of the reasons of the award-givers (which need to be considered in context), for my money Still Alice avoids the problems that I identified in The Theory of Everything. Not least among these is the attention to academia, as the scientific discoveries of Stephen Hawking are little more than background in The Theory of Everything. In Still Alice, the academic environment adds to the sense of loss, as Alice’s deteriorating mind is something she previously developed and which has helped to define her. What do we become when we lose crucial parts of our identity? This is one of the questions that Still Alice explores in detail.
What is most impressive about the film is writer-directors Richard Glatzer and Wash Westmoreland cinematic rendering of the protagonist’s experience. Early in the film, there is a wonderful sequence where Alice goes running and suddenly becomes disorientated. The image loses focus, expressing her confusion and fear, while the camera pans around her so that we also feel disorientated. Later, Alice becomes lost in her own home, the camera remaining with her as she searches in vain for the bathroom she not only knows must be there, but that she knows she should remember. Sequences like this run the risk of being simplistic or even cruel, but Glatzer and Westmoreland avoid this pitfall by never slipping into mawkishness. Nor are there moments of histrionic melodrama, as restraint is a great strength throughout the film. It is telling that the most moving scene (for me at least) is not one of the more flashy sequences but when Alice delivers a speech to an Alzheimer’s support organisation. For much of this scene, the camera rests on her face, Alice’s brittle voice simultaneously expressing her fear and her resolve. This expression continues throughout the film, ensuring that we are not alienated from Alice’s struggle. The film is a bold and affecting portrayal of a life falling apart, all the more heartbreaking because we are there every step of the way.
Predictions and Preferences: Perspective on Oscar Nominations Part Three
The sharp-eyed among you, and possibly the impatient, may have noticed that my previous posts on the Oscars neglected to give any verdict on the actual nominees for this year’s Academy Awards. Now that I’ve actually seen more of them, that will be rectified, just in time too. What I am NOT going to do, however, is declare that I know better than the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences and that they should obviously have nominated Pride over American Sniper, or that Michael Keaton should win because he is clearly so much better than Eddie Redmayne, and that if Julianne Moore doesn’t win it will be a travesty, etc. I hate it when individuals insist that their own singular opinions are more valid than the democratically voted Academy nominees and winners. You may disagree with the results of these votes, but that does not make you right, better or superior. I therefore offer my prediction of what I believe will win and what I would vote for if I were a member of AMPAS. If I have not seen enough of the nominees, I offer no opinion.
Picture
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Based purely on content, the films most likely to win Best Picture are The Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything. The former is a true story about an important figure of the twentieth century, largely set during World War II. The latter is a true story about an important figure of the twentieth century who overcame great adversity. The adversity is significant here – The Theory of Everything presents Stephen Hawking’s story as one of triumph and the power of love, whereas The Imitation Game balances triumph with tragedy, as Alan Turing may have cracked the Enigma Code but submitted to chemical castration before committing suicide (according to the film). It is a sad fact that the Academy’s conservatism is likely to block The Imitation Game from Best Picture, as it is a film focused upon a homosexual. While such films have previously been nominated, such as Brokeback Mountain, Capote (both 2005) and The Kids are All Right (2010), they are yet to win Best Picture.
American Sniper shares elements with 2009’s Best Picture winner The Hurt Locker with its attention to the minutiae of combat, and has the added bonus of being a true story. Selma is also a true story, about major events in American history and one of the most significant activists of the 20th century. Both these films have generated controversy, American Sniper for its (according to some) pro-war presentation of the Iraq conflict and Selma for the Academy’s failure to nominate Ava DuVernay for Best Director or David Oyelowo for Best Actor. The Academy rarely rewards controversial films, and it is a sad truth that “black” films are also seldom rewarded, 12 Years A Slave being the first “black film” to win Best Picture.
Of the fictional tales, The Grand Budapest Hotel is a long shot as comedies very rarely win; Whiplash speaks to an artistic sensibility that chimes with the Academy’s love for triumphing over adversity. The admiration for Richard Linklater’s twelve-year labour of love has continued since the Golden Globes and shows no signs of abating. While I was more impressed by Birdman’s visually thrilling attack on contemporary culture, I predict that the Academy will go for the American charm that Boyhood valorises.
Predicted winner: Boyhood
Preferred winner: Birdman
Director
Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alejandro González Iñárritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
Richard Linklater’s extraordinary commitment to Boyhood’s twelve-year production is reason enough for the Academy to reward him. Furthermore, he is a well-established and respected figure in Hollywood (and apparently Ethan Hawke’s best mate) whose films have captivated many over the years. It seems to be his time. However, Alejandro González Iñárritu picked up the Directors’ Guild of America award, which is frequently followed by the Oscar, so it is a very close race. I preferred Iñárritu’s swift, relentless and visceral direction of Birdman, which is a sharp contrast to Linklater’s more fluid, blink-and-you’ll-miss-that-we’ve-jumped-forward-three-years approach. I still think Linklater will win, but I would be over the moon if this award went to Iñárritu.
Predicted winner: Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Preferred winner: Alejandro González Iñárritu, Birdman
Actor
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Physical transformation and playing a historical figure are what the Academy love, and Eddie Redmayne has already picked up multiple awards. While the Academy also loves a comeback like that of Michael Keaton, such performances don’t always win (see John Travolta for Pulp Fiction and Mickey Rourke for The Wrestler). I would love Keaton to win, not least because he is never likely to do a better performance, but I think it unlikely.
Predicted winner: Eddie Redmayne
Preferred winner: Michael Keaton
Actress
Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
I have only seen two of these nominees, Rosamund Pike and Felicity Jones. I enjoyed both films and consider Jones to be the best thing in The Theory of Everything, but of the two I would pick Pike. However, it looks like this will be the year of five-time nominee Julianne Moore. I wish her well, and look forward to seeing Still Alice.
Predicted winner: Julianne Moore
Supporting Actor
Robert Duvall, The Judge
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J. K. Simmons, Whiplash
Aside from Robert Duvall, I have seen all of these and they are a great bunch (film fans in search of great acting should check out Best Supporting Actor nominees). J K. Simmons has picked up all the awards so far, and will almost certainly pick up the Oscar too. While I was less than enamoured with Whiplash as a whole, I have no problem with his performance.
Predicted and preferred winner: J. K. Simmons
Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Laura Dern, Wild
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
I was impressed by Patricia Arquette, Keira Knightley and Emma Stone, and am somewhat bemused that Meryl Streep has yet another nomination to add to her collection (I have seen neither Into the Woods nor Wild). As Arquette has won everything so far, there is no reason to suspect she will not continue. And I pick her too, not least because she reminds me of my own mother.
Predicted and preferred winner: Patricia Arquette
Best Original Screenplay
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Nightcrawler
I’ve seen all of these other than Nightcrawler, and with Writers Guild Awards as well as a BAFTA, the witty and wacky script of The Grand Budapest Hotel is a safe bet. But as in the Best Picture category, I prefer the scathing, mad energy of Birdman.
Predicted winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Preferred winner: Birdman
Best Adapted Screenplay
American Sniper
The Imitation Game
Inherent Vice
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
A mixed bag here, one based on a novel, three on biographies and one on a short film. The battle here is between the Writers’ Guild Award winner The Imitation Game and the BAFTA-winning The Theory of Everything. I like both films and it could go either way, but on the night I believe the Academy will follow the practice of the guild. I’m OK with that.
Predicted and preferred winner: The Imitation Game
Animated Feature Film
Big Hero 6
The Boxtrolls
How to Train Your Dragon 2
Song of the Sea
The Tale of the Princess Kaguya
Predicted winner: How to Train Your Dragon 2 (the only nominee I’ve seen as well)
Foreign Language Film
Ida
Leviathan
Tangerines
Timbuktu
Wild Tales
Predicted winner: Leviathan (complete guess)
Documentary, Feature
Citizenfour
Finding Vivian Maier
Last Days in Vietnam
The Salt of the Earth
Virunga
What will win: Virunga (not seen any, so a complete guess)
Original Score
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
Mr. Turner
The Theory of Everything
I’ve seen all of these but confess I barely remember the scores from all but one, and as a huge fan of Hans Zimmer in general and his score for Interstellar especially, I would like him to win. But Alexandre Desplat is receiving his seventh and eighth nominations simultaneously, and I think it is his time. For which film? Since Desplat picked up the BAFTA for The Grand Budapest Hotel, this seems likely. But then again, Jóhann Jóhannsson won the Golden Globe for his score for The Theory of Everything, so this race has a far from obvious winner.
Predicted winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Preferred winner: Interstellar
Film Editing
American Sniper
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Whiplash
There’s a simple reason Birdman will not win Best Picture, which is that it is not nominated for Editing. Historically speaking, Editing and Picture frequently go together, at least in terms of nominations. If Best Director and Original Screenplay were certain to go to Boyhood, I would predict differently. But as Birdman could pick up Director and The Grand Budapest Hotel is more likely for Screenplay, as a Best Picture winner Boyhood will also pick up Editing. That said, I found the more intricate cutting of The Imitation Game to be more involving and absorbing.
Predicted winner: Boyhood
Preferred winner: The Imitation Game
Visual Effects
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Guardians of the Galaxy
Interstellar
X-Men: Days of Future Past
What could be known as the blockbuster award, this is the one bone that is regularly thrown to the box office champions, where artists and technicians make wildly popular cinematic marvels, for films that are consistently ignored for other awards. I imagine Interstellar’s spacescapes will be rewarded here, but personally I was even more taken by the extraordinary performance capture and digital rendering of ape armies.
Predicted winner: Interstellar
Preferred winner: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Sound Editing
American Sniper
Birdman
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Interstellar
Unbroken
War films typically make great use of sound, and American Sniper is no exception. But the brilliant interchanges of sound and silence in Interstellar might just snag it, if I have my way.
Predicted winner: American Sniper
Preferred winner: Interstellar
Sound Mixing
American Sniper
Birdman
Interstellar
Unbroken
Whiplash
Again, I was captivated by the sound of Interstellar, but I cannot help but be impressed by Whiplash’s soundscape of music, voices and more indistinct noises.
Predicted winner: Whiplash
Preferred winner: Interstellar
Production Design
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Mr. Turner
The Grand Budapest Hotel is an exquisitely designed film and it seems unlikely that the Academy members will ignore this.
Predicted and preferred winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Cinematography
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Ida
Mr. Turner
Unbroken
An astonishing level of artistic and technical brilliance is performed by Emmanuel Lubezki in Birdman, making this award a sure thing.
Predicted and preferred winner: Birdman
Makeup and Hairstyling
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Guardians of the Galaxy
The makeup and hairstyling of The Grand Budapest Hotel is a work of art in itself, and is exactly the type of work that tends to win this award.
Predicted and preferred winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Costume Design
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Inherent Vice
Into the Woods
Maleficent
Mr. Turner
Much the same as Makeup and Hairstyling.
Predicted and preferred winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel
In the other categories, I do not know enough to guess.
Documentary – Short Subject
Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
Joanna
Our Curse
The Reaper (La Parka)
White Earth
No idea.
Live Action Short Film
Aya
Boogaloo and Graham
Butter Lamp (La Lampe au beurre de yak)
Parvaneh
The Phone Call
No idea.
Animated Short Film
The Bigger Picture
The Dam Keeper
Feast
Me and My Moulton
A Single Life
No idea.
Original Song
“Everything Is Awesome” from The Lego Movie
“Glory” from Selma
“Grateful” from Beyond the Lights
“I’m Not Gonna Miss You” from Glen Campbell: I’ll Be Me
“Lost Stars” from Begin Again
No idea.
Check back soon for my reactions to the winners and the show as a whole! I predict it will be legen – wait for it – DARY!
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1
How do we negotiate between personal loyalty and social responsibility? This question propels the first part of The Hunger Games finale, exploring conflict on a micro and macro scale. Katniss Everdeen (Jennifer Lawrence) is frantic with worry over the imprisoned Peeta Malark (Josh Hutcherson), but she has been recruited by revolutionary president Alma Coin (Julianne Moore) and spin doctor Plutarch Heavensbee (Philip Seymour Hoffman) as the Mockingjay, symbol of the Panem rebellion. A key dramatic tension throughout the film is Katniss balancing her concern for Peeta against the larger demands of the revolution, while Coin and Heavensbee endeavour to use the Mockingjay to win the hearts and minds of Panem’s population. The flickers of rebellion allow for thrilling but brutal action set pieces, director Francis Lawrence and DOP Jo Willems making judicious use of handheld cinematography (which was overused in the original The Hunger Games), at one point conveying the aesthetic of a journalist embedded in combat troops. Alongside these set pieces, Katniss delivers heartfelt, impassioned speeches about President Snow’s (Donald Sutherland) atrocities, her words utilised in propaganda videos that are stirring and inspiring. Lawrence is magnificent in a role that requires both strength and fragility, the viewer never in doubt as to Katniss’ pain and fear as well as her courage and resolve. The dilemma that she faces is perfectly encapsulated in the film’s final shot, as Katniss’ reflection is superimposed over the human cost of the escalating conflict. The answer to the film’s central question may have to wait until Part 2, but Part 1 remains a grim and compelling exploration of the conflict between personal and social duty.